We have several momentum trendline breaks across the precious metals universe (Gold, Silver and Aussie Dollar) warning of further short-term downside. Gold (XAUUSD) and AUDUSD have already weakened and lost around USD 50 respectively 300 PIPs or roughly 5% from their most recent peaks whereas Silver (XAGUSD) has remained solid at its intermediate highs (15.50ish).
Provided with these drops in Gold and the Aussie Dollar, Silver seems now to take a similar path as its two companions and could drop half a dollar (~5%) till it finds some bottom in the USD 15 area acting as make-or-break area. If 15 holds, one can expect a re-test of the recent highs at 16.36 and possibly even higher highs to 16 3/4. In the case Silver falls below this support, next targets would be 14 (-10%) and 13.40 (-13%).
With the bullish break-out beginning of October 15, Gold (XAUUSD) was able to print fresh 4 month highs but was not able to remain above 1190 and is now taking a breather. Trading now at 1142, Gold could drop another USD 20 (to 1120) before we could see a very strong rebound to 1200 area or even 1240 levels. Nevertheless, we think 1120 will hold but still remain cautious due to its most recent breach of the momentum trendline (warning sign). Should Gold drop below its very important support level at 1120 (Jan 15 downward trendline), further downside to 1060 area could be expected.
The picture of AUDUSD is very simliar to the one in Gold (as usual) and also another short-term drop of roughly 150 PIPs seems inevitable. The levels around 0.70 act as major support zone and are likely to be tested ahead of another bull attempt to 0.74. If it fails to rebound, 0.69 / 0.67 seem as legit downside targets.
Conclusion: Too early to chase upside again in Gold, Silver and AUDUSD. Do not yet cover your shorts but remain cautious. Key make-or-break levels ahead!
Along with our last week’s roadmap, USDCHF, GOLD, COPPER, CRUDE OIL WTI printed new highs meanwhile the Treasuries (Bund & US 10Yr), EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD slipped to lower levels and Equity Indices remained in consolidation mode as anticipated.
Highlights (Week 37):
DAX30 – make-or-break!
SMI – caught in the middle.
S&P500 – 1920 to hold?
EURUSD – further downside to come.
GBPUSD – to bounce or not to bounce?
EURJPY – bottom in sight?
USDCAD – do not chase upside!
USDJPY – was that the top?
GOLD – too early to turn bullish.
COPPER – bottom found?
CRUDE OIL WTI – to proceed its bounce?
As anticipated in our last week’s “Technical Weekly”, we expected further downside in DAX30 and SP500. Also according to our last weeks release, the German Bund and US-10 Year Notes have proceeded to higher highs along with EURUSD, USDCAD and Gold. Moreover, Crude Oil WTI has reached our suggested support at 38 and rapidly rebounded as expected. For the upcoming week, we have several make-or-break scenarios especially on the Equity Indices side.
Highlights (Week 36):
DAX30 â€“ retest of recent lows to be expected?
SMI – is the panic over? New highs in sight?
S&P500 – trading at 50% retracement, now rebound to all-time highs?
GERMAN BUND – to proceed to higher highs?
EURUSD – to drop to 1.09?
EURCHF – swiss franc to weaken further?
USDCHF – parity in sight?
USDCAD – sky is the limit?
GOLD – proceed its rebound?
CRUDE OIL WTI – bottom found?
Highlights (Week 35):
DAX â€“ further downside expected?
EURUSD â€“ taking a short breather.
USDCHF â€“ make or break?
EURJPY â€“ more upside to come?
Silver â€“ intermediate reversal?
Crude Oil WTI â€“ still bearish but…
Read our report here: REVIVE-INVESTMENTS-WEEKLY-35-2015
Highlights (Week 34):
DAX – downside limited, further upside expected
USDCAD – rapid breakdown ahead
EURJPY – short-term upside expected
Crude Oil WTI – further downside expected but limited
Gold – ready for an intermediate rebound
Read full report here: REVIVE-INVESTMENTS-WEEKLY-34-2015