EURUSD

EURUSD emerged to new highs (1.0829) just after my last post, but failed to reach my target (1.0860). Following some range trading, EURUSD then breached an important momentum support line (warning) and fell out of the upward channel yesterday. So far, the pair has lost around 70 pips. I expect further consolidation down to 1.0520 (-150 pips) before we could see another up leg.

Conclusion: Major supports broken. Go short until 1.0520.

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EURUSD

Along with the choppy equity markets, EURUSD looks meanwhile very promising for a little boost and higher intermediate highs. Given the recent bounce off its channel support line (1.0640 area), the most recent break-out from the counter-trend channel and the improving momentum along higher highs, looks very promising for upside to 1.0860ish. Should reach target within two to three days, latest.

Conclusion: Short-term upside to 1.0860ish. Ready for a bounce!

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DAX30 INDEX

Just after my last post, DAX30 Index has emerged to new highs and meanwhile reached my projected price target at 11450 points. Whereas EURUSD has plunged further and printed new 13-year (!) lows in the 1.0350 area. Despite the new highs along with the slowing momentum in DAX30 Index, I see further short-term upside to 11’775 area which is equal to the Fibonacci trend extension (9’214 / 10’495 / 11’775). But I would not chase upside too aggressively, rather (if even) trade little short-term long plays with tight stops. When looking on the intermarket picture, for instance EURUSD; it does not look too promising on the short-term side for further upside in DAX30 Index. Despite the new lows in EURUSD, momentum is slowing down and is not (yet) confirming the new lows which calls for some short-term bullish consolidation. Furthermore, EURUSD is about to complete its 5th impulsive wave which has the equal height as the 1st wave (equality). Target is around 1.0350 which is also along the support line of the channel which emerged in August 2015 (color: turquoise).

Conclusion: Intermediate upside targets in DAX30 Index and downside targets in EURUSD reached. Remain on the sidelines until further notice. Short and choppy road ahead.

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DAX30 INDEX (WATCH)

In my last post on the DAX 30 Index on 7th January 2016, I warned of further short-term downside from 9’980 to 9’350 (read full post here). The timing was more than right as DAX 30 then slit over 600 points and made a new 1 year low at 9314.

Following a rebound attempt to 10’000, DAX 30 failed to complete an intermediate bottom and meanwhile dropped 10% within just two weeks to 8’980. Despite the new lows and higher volume, the final sell-off is still ahead of us.

It seems DAX 30 is within its final wave 5 of a minor impulsive wave.  Given that fact, the 3rd wave extension and the fibonacci equality ratio extension, I reckon an intermediate bottom will be found at around 8’780. This suggests of another 200 points drop from here (-2.20%) with excessive volume. So it’s gonna be short, but painful.

On the intermarket side, further short-term upside in EURUSD to 1.14, its trend-channel resistance line, seems likely and would be align with the DAX 30 roadmap.

Conclusion: Too early to pick bottom in DAX 30 Index, final and strong sell-off to 8’780 still ahead. EURUSD, buy into new lows with target 1.14.

DAX30 Perf Index 08022016

EURUSD-08022016

DAX30 vs. EURUSD (WATCH)

With the recent development in the German DAX Index and its inverse correlation to EURUSD, technicals look promising for some further upside until year end.

After the double-bottom formation built during Q3/2015, DAX30 was able to strongly rebound to (almost) 11’000 levels. The measured price target given by that double-bottom formation suggests of upside to 11’650 (+6%). Nevertheless, the momentum is still very strong but slightly overbought, suggesting of not chasing the upside to heavily and instead wait for a breach of the resistance line (blue) starting off April this year – break-out zone in numbers: 11’150 – 11’200.

The intermaket perspective supports this scenario: we have EURUSD just recently crossed below its 7-month trend-channel led by a momentum trendline breach and in combination suggests of further downside in the next couple of weeks / till year end. First support could be found at 1.08 with further downside and a test of the 12-year low at 1.0462.

Conclusion: do not chase upside in DAX30 too aggressively, rather wait for break-out confirmation! Slowly short EURUSD at current levels (Risk Stop: 1.1150).

DAX30-02112015

EURUSD-02112015

 

EURUSD (IDEA)

RELATED/ORIGINAL POST: DAX30 vs. EURUSD (WATCH)

02/11/2015


With the recent development in the German DAX Index and its inverse correlation to EURUSD, technicals look promising for some further upside until year end.

After the double-bottom formation built during Q3/2015, DAX30 was able to strongly rebound to (almost) 11’000 levels. The measured price target given by that double-bottom formation suggests of upside to 11’650 (+6%). Nevertheless, the momentum is still very strong but slightly overbought, suggesting of not chasing the upside to heavily and instead wait for a breach of the resistance line (blue) starting off April this year – break-out zone in numbers: 11’150 – 11’200.

The intermaket perspective supports this scenario: we have EURUSD just recently crossed below its 7-month trend-channel led by a momentum trendline breach and in combination suggests of further downside in the next couple of weeks / till year end. First support could be found at 1.08 with further downside and a test of the 12-year low at 1.0462.

Conclusion: do not chase upside in DAX30 too aggressively, rather wait for break-out confirmation! Slowly short EURUSD at current levels (Risk Stop: 1.1150).

DAX30-02112015

EURUSD-02112015

TA Weekly – 37/2015

Along with our last week’s roadmap, USDCHF, GOLD, COPPER, CRUDE OIL WTI printed new highs meanwhile the Treasuries (Bund & US 10Yr), EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD slipped to lower levels and Equity Indices remained in consolidation mode as anticipated.

Highlights (Week 37):

DAX30 – make-or-break!
SMI – caught in the middle.
S&P500 – 1920 to hold?

EURUSD – further downside to come.
GBPUSD – to bounce or not to bounce?
EURJPY – bottom in sight?
USDCAD – do not chase upside!
USDJPY – was that the top?

GOLD – too early to turn bullish.
COPPER – bottom found?
CRUDE OIL WTI – to proceed its bounce?

…and more!

TA Weekly – 36/2015

As anticipated in our last week’s “Technical Weekly”, we expected further downside in DAX30 and SP500. Also according to our last weeks release, the German Bund and US-10 Year Notes have proceeded to higher highs along with EURUSD, USDCAD and Gold. Moreover, Crude Oil WTI has reached our suggested support at 38 and rapidly rebounded as expected. For the upcoming week, we have several make-or-break scenarios especially on the Equity Indices side.

Highlights (Week 36):

DAX30 – retest of recent lows to be expected?
SMI – is the panic over? New highs in sight?
S&P500 – trading at 50% retracement, now rebound to all-time highs?

GERMAN BUND – to proceed to higher highs?

EURUSD – to drop to 1.09?
EURCHF – swiss franc to weaken further?
USDCHF – parity in sight?
USDCAD – sky is the limit?

GOLD – proceed its rebound?
CRUDE OIL WTI – bottom found?

…and more!

EURUSD (WATCH)

The long enduring downward trend in EURUSD is very likely to have come to an end. These days, EURUSD is facing some sidewards distribution in form of a triangle formation. In most of the times, a triangle formation suggests of a continuation of the previous trend (which would be obviously downwards in the case of EURUSD), BUT a breakout out of the triangle formation within two-third or three-quarter of the whole formation (absolute low until apex) is crucial to confirm this continuation pattern as valid. Meanwhile we have pretty much passed these gauges and we would absolutely not be surprised if EUR strengthens against USD significantly! If EURUSD breaks out to the upside out of this triangle formation, we can expect a move to at least 1.2580 which is roughly 10% higher to where we are trading now.

If you do not want to wait for the breakout (confirmation), one can go long EURUSD at current levels (1.14ish) with stop-loss at 1.1088 and target at 1.2550.